Shortest win price
Seinfeld (5)
3.00
Welcome to Cranbourne for the McMahon's Dairy Mdn Plate over the 1400m journey on a Good 4 track under overcast skies. Punters looking at the win market have lined up Rock About at the top of the order, closely followed by Seinfeld, La Velocita, and Hellica rounding out the shorter options in what shapes as a fascinating 3UP MDN-SW battle. As the field prepares for action, let us dive into the form and find some value on the local card.
Looking at the form behind those shorter prices, Rock About brings some genuine appeal for trainer Ms W Kelly with Joe Bowditch in the saddle from barrier 11. This runner finished a close second at Pakenham Synthetic before running third at Seymour over 1200m, and the step up in distance looks a logical plus based on the comments. Seinfeld is another engaged here for Clayton Douglas and Daniel Stackhouse, dropping back in distance after placing at Seymour and Cranbourne during the previous campaign. Meanwhile, La Velocita sits further down the order with Luke Cartwright aboard, coming off consistent minor placings at Yarra Valley and Cranbourne where the extra ground should suit nicely.
Further down the win market, runners like Full Zoom represent an interesting debut angle from barrier 1 for Lloyd Kennewell and Logan Bates, backed by a strong trainer-jockey combination statistic. On the speed map, Seinfeld is marked as the leader, while Rock About pushes forward onto the pace, and others like Shields show early speed which can prove an advantage on this circuit. Punters assessing the broader form lines will find plenty of intriguing narratives as the race jumps at 7:45 pm AEDT.
Shortest win price
Seinfeld (5)
3.00
Back left · leaders right
Offmidfield
Offpace
Onpace
Firststart
Backmarker
Midfield
Leader
Community Gaz · Negative
Trainer SR
Michael Huglin striking at just 3%
Full Zoom · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Rock About · Negative
Trainer SR
Wendy Kelly striking at just 7%
Royal Business · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 48% lower than Career Avg.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1214m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Michael Huglin striking at just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -50% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 63%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 70% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Moderate form profile overall. Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Wodonga when second-up. Has an adverse draw. Others rate stronger.
ILB
Odds of $26.00 and performed below standard when 7th last time at Wodonga but returns to an increased distance. Might have to make up considerable ground. Prefer to watch.
RP
Found life tough when 6l back in seventh at Wodonga over 5½f (maiden) last month; definitely of interest.
RSIS
Started 25/1 and disappointing run when 7th last run at Wodonga but returns to a rise in trip. Likely to settle back in the field.
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Firststart
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
On Debut
Positive
First race start
AAP
$150k purchase. 4yo gelding out of a half-sister to G2 winner Santos making debut. 7th & 5th at recent jump-outs. Good draw. Bears close watching.
ILB
Lloyd Kennewell 4yo by Pierata having first race appearance and drawn well. Respect the betting.
RP
Related to Texas Open (winner from 4½f up to 7f); the only newcomer; leading claims as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
Pierata 4yo having first race appearance for Lloyd Kennewell and gets the perfect draw. Watch early betting.
Career
3: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Wendy Kelly striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 37%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
AAP
Settled off pace, rallied well but couldn't match winner at Seymour second-up. Suited by the longer assignment now. Big show with even breaks.
ILB
Caught the eye when 3rd beaten by 1 1/2L last start at Seymour and showing consistent performance in races. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts this campaign. Watch the betting.
RP
Some promise; closest he has come to winning after three starts was a second; sound effort when 25-1 third at Seymour over 6f (maiden) four weeks ago.
RSIS
Finished strongly when 3rd last run at Seymour and promising career start. Been in the money 2 from 2 attempts of late. Betting is the best guide.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 48% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
AAP
Kicks off second campaign (20-weeks). 2nd & 3rd at latest Mornington jump-outs. Sound claims fresh.
ILB
First run back after break. Started at $21.00 and tailed off to finish 11th last run at Bendigo. Rough chance today.
RP
Finished 11th of 12 over 7½f at Bendigo (maiden) five months ago; returns from a layoff here; has been on the scene in the recent past and could go close.
RSIS
First run back. At 20/1 didn't threaten when 11th last start at Bendigo.
Career
3: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2025m
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-1
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Second campaign (19-weeks). Wasn't all that far away in his first prep. Unplaced in recent jump-outs. Likely to play a leading role first-up.
ILB
Back from a spell. Gave a strong sight when 3rd beaten by 2 1/2L last run at this venue and solid career start. Shows good early pace. Will go close today.
RP
Not yet off the mark in three attempts although has finished second; minor honours in a maiden in June (11-10) upped to 1m2f; returns from a layoff.
RSIS
Fresh from a break. Displayed a strong effort throughout the race when 3rd beaten by 2 1/2L last run at the track and showing consistent performance in races. Winning potential.
Career
17: 0-3-2
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1409m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1009m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-2
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 44% in Last 100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn winning at 37% POT in last 100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Solid performance in defeat in the 4yo+ Mdn Plate at Yarra Glen. Distance increase suits. Deep into his campaign, capable of making an impact.
ILB
Produced an eye catching run when 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L last start at Yarra Valley and going up in distance. Showing improvement in recent outings. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Not beaten far when second at Yarra Glen over 5f (maiden) last month; seems to be improving based on last two runs but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 17.
RSIS
Finished with intent when 2nd last start at Yarra Vstall and going over more ground. Demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Could feature here.
Career
7: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
3: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1415m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 24%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Shown some ability. Came home hot on their heels to grab third 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Mornington. Among the dangers again.
ILB
Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd beaten by 1L last time at Mornington. Limited possibility.
RP
Has taken a step forward the last twice; on the premises when third of ten at Mornington over 7½f (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Hit the line well when 3rd beaten by 1L last start at Mornington.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 26% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Ben Brisbourne striking at just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kicks off second campaign (20-weeks). Well down the track at Wangaratta on debut. Experience gained with a 3rd & 1st at latest jump-outs. Monitor the markets.
ILB
Resuming after a break. Started at $13.00 and didn't find the line when 6th last start at Wangaratta on a heavy track but was on debut last time. Will be a tough ask.
RP
Completely tailed off on his debut (Wangaratta, 1m) at 12-1 five months ago; returns from an absence here; ought to give it a shot.
RSIS
Back from a break. Started 12/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 6th last run at Wangaratta on a heavy rated track but fitter for debut run.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot Trainer
Positive
Alexander Rae in good form, out performing market 57%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 35% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (29-weeks). Ex Gemma Rielly. Finished down the track in both country maiden assignments last time in. Unplaced at the jump-outs. Prefer to see.
ILB
Resuming from a 29 week spell. Jumped at $151.00 and faded away to finish 8th last time at this track. First race for a new trainer. Entitled to be big odds.
RP
Came home eighth, beaten 8l, in April upped to 6½f; first start for current stable; layoff to overcome; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Fresh from a 29 week break. At 150/1 weakened under pressure when 8th last run at this track. Change in trainer.
Career
12: 0-1-4
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-2
Track Yarra Valley
2: 0-0-1
Track Moe
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-1
Going Good
5: 0-0-3
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 52% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Luke Cartwright 44% above market expected in L100 Rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Form useful. Beaten a few lengths but found enough to fill the minors at Yarra Glen. Added journey should assist. Hard fit, not out of it.
ILB
Ran on when 3rd last run at Yarra Valley and stepping up in trip. Definite claims.
RP
Has shown some recent improvement but yet to open her account after 12 starts; finished just behind Silver Snow when third at Yarra Glen over 5f (maiden) 13 days ago; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
Finished well when 3rd last run at Yarra Vstall and going up in distance. Can measure up against these.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Patiently handled and only battled to wire at Bairnsdale at second start. Place hope.
ILB
Started at $14.00 and made some ground when 4th last time at Bairnsdale. Needs to find a lot more.
RP
Missed the frame (beaten 7l into fourth) over 6f at Bairnsdale (maiden) three weeks ago; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Started 13/1 and picked up some late ground when 4th last time at Bairnsdale.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1715m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1214m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (22-weeks). Has come back into work with a 3rd & 2nd at the jump-outs. Keep safe.
ILB
Fresh today. Odds of $11.00 and edged past some when finishing 5th last time at Geelong and can find a nice position from the draw. Gets back and needs luck. Looks hopeful at best.
RP
Fifth of ten beaten 14l at Geelong in June upped to 1m½f; yet to finish better than fourth in her three races; back from an absence here; others appeal more.
RSIS
Resuming from a break. Started at 10/1 and edged past some when finishing 5th last time at Geelong on a heavy track and drawn nicely. Will be dropping in distance.
Career
11: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1218m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Started $151 when safely held in Maiden company at Pakenham Synthetic over this trip. Form falls short of this.
ILB
Didn't threaten when 10th last time at Pakenham Synthetic.
RP
Finished tenth of 12 (Pakenham) last month.
RSIS
Didn't find the line when 10th last time at Pakenham Synthetic.