Shortest win price
The Beast (7) and Big Brad (10)
4.80
Welcome to Dubbo for the Carpet One Dubbo Country Boosted Mdn Plate over 1400m on a Good 4 surface with fine weather overhead. The local punters are lining up for a fascinating maiden contest, and the win market order sees The Beast leading the charge at the head of affairs, closely followed by Big Brad, Recognition, and Hangonaseq filling out the early fancies in the betting ring.
Looking closer at the form lines behind those shorter prices, The Beast brings a seasoned 12-start campaign and draws barrier 2 for trainer Ms J Clement and jockey Gabrielle Johnston, though sectionals suggest he goes hard early and recent runs at Tamworth and Dubbo point to others carrying more punch. Meanwhile, Recognition lines up in barrier 8 with Jake Pracey-Holmes steering for Andrew Ryan, following a modest effort at Orange where the run was not disgraced but might leave him fighting mainly for the minors here.
Further down the market order, stablemates Big Brad and Hangonaseq from the Brett and Georgie Cavanough yard present interesting angles despite stepping up sharply in distance from initial 1000m outings at Tamworth. Big Brad jumps from barrier 3 with Liberty Smyth aboard, looking to build on a sound career opener where valuable lessons were learned, while Hangonaseq starts from barrier 6 with Nick Palmer after finishing right behind them on debut and can take a positive step forward in this company.
Shortest win price
The Beast (7) and Big Brad (10)
4.80
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Castro · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 43% better than Career Avg.
Knights Templar · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Kojak · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Nodefence · Negative
Jockey Booking
Jess Del Frari current POT is 39% below Career Avg.
Career
14: 0-2-6
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Forbes
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
5: 0-2-3
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1318m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
9: 0-2-5
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 43% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Serg Lisnyy 42% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot Trainer
Positive
Kylie Kennedy in good form, out performing market 35%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Serg Lisnyy winning at 32% POT in last 100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Made late rally from the back at Coonamble first up. Fitter second-up and the longer trip helps. Usually gets back. Can play a role if things pan out.
ILB
Started $9.50 and kept chasing when 5th last run at Coonamble and returning to a rise in trip. Displays good closing speed. Will go close.
RP
Has a couple of solid recent course efforts to his name; fair effort at Coonamble over 5½f (maiden) 20 days ago; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so looks risky.
RSIS
Started 17/2 and moved through the field into 5th last run at Coonamble and returning to an increased distance. Possesses good closing pace. Genuine claims.
Career
4: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Secured third in a staggered finish at Narromine. Needs to lift again here.
ILB
Was amongst the placegetters when 3rd last time at Narromine. Will be a difficult test.
RP
Close up behind Mega Missile when third over 6½f at Narromine (maiden) 14 days ago; just his fifth outing so still early days; appears to be going forwards; should not be far away.
RSIS
Came on strongly to finish 3rd when beaten by over 5L last time at Narromine.
Career
13: 0-3-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Wellington
1: 0-1-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1950m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
9: 0-3-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Orange. Drops to shorter trip. Others rate stronger.
ILB
Started at $10.00 and didn't threaten when 7th last start at Orange. Should improve here and drawn the rails. Should muster plenty of early toe. Solid claims.
RP
Form has been a bit mixed lately; finished last of seven in a handicap (Orange) 12 days ago; is passed over in what appears to be a competitive contest.
RSIS
Started at 9/1 and faded away to finish 7th last run at Orange. Capable of a strong comeback and gets a favourable draw. Has early pace and positions nicely. Strong prospects.
Career
23: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
6: 0-0-0
Track Parkes
1: 0-0-0
Track Warren
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
7: 0-2-0
Distance 1020m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
7: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-0-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Jess Del Frari current POT is 39% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 47% in L100 rides
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Track Stats
Negative
Tends to struggle at this track
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
AAP
On a short back-up. Failed to threaten at Coonabarabran at huge odds. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
On a short back up. At $101.00 crept into 5th last run at Coonabarabran and returns to more ground. Yet to break maiden status after 21 starts. Appears tested in this.
RP
Signs of improvement on last two runs but yet to win, defeats are stacking up; beaten 8l (fifth) over 4½f at Coonabarabran (maiden) last Sunday; others appeal more with a number of his rivals in good nick.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Odds of 100/1 and made ground when closing off to finish 5th last start at Coonabarabran and back over extra ground.
Career
7: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
3: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-1
Track Orange
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not disgraced at Orange second-up at $7.50. Only for the minors here.
ILB
Started at $7.50 and faded away to finish 7th last start at Orange. Has the necessary speed to mitigate the wide draw. Watch the betting.
RP
Not disgraced in seventh over 6½f at Orange (maiden) three weeks ago; some promise; closest he has come to winning after seven starts was a second; this line-up contains some strong opposition so looks an unlikely winner.
RSIS
Odds of 13/2 and looked outclassed when 7th last run at Orange. The wide draw shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early pace. Watch betting.
Career
13: 0-2-2
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Moruya
2: 0-0-1
Track Sapphire Coast
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1280m
4: 0-0-1
Distance 1410m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1425m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 24% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Billy Cray 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Last, unleashed driving charge late this venue for new stable. Has a tricky draw. This looks a deeper race.
ILB
Finished well when 2nd last start at this venue on a heavy track. The wide draw shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early speed. Others preferred.
RP
Has arguably shown improved form the last twice; well held second of 12 here over 6½f (maiden) on his debut for this trainer four weeks ago.
RSIS
Produced an eye catching run when 2nd beaten by close to 3 1/2L last start at this venue. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide draw.
Career
12: 0-5-3
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-2-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-2-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
4: 0-3-1
Going Good
6: 0-4-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-2
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 13% in Last 100 Rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Tamworth over this distance. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Odds of $11.00 and didn't attack the line when 7th last start at Tamworth. Happy to forgive that run and gets a favourable draw. Good prospects.
RP
Last of seven at Tamworth 19 days ago; form has been up and down of late; others appeal more as has a lot on his plate here.
RSIS
At 10/1 couldn't stay in touch when 7th last run at Tamworth. Can make a comeback and drawn nicely. Should come to hand quickly. Good chance in this.
Career
17: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2470m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
2: 0-2-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Garry Lunn striking at just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 41%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Settled midfield and never a serious challenger at Bathurst over this distance. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Started $19.00 and was well beaten when 6th last run at Bathurst. Should muster plenty of early speed. Yet to break through after 17 starts. Appears tested.
RP
Beaten 10l (sixth) at Bathurst two weeks ago; still without a win after 17 starts; others more persuasive with a number of her rivals in good nick.
RSIS
At 18/1 gave away some ground when 6th last time at Bathurst. Shows good early pace. Yet to break maiden status after 17 runs.
Career
7: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Track Cowra
1: 0-0-0
Track Gilgandra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 950m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 48%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 47% Profit on Turnover
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
AAP
Performance just fair at Orange over this distance at $26. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Not up to scratch when 6th last time at Moree. Has not placed in 8 attempts this preparation.
RP
Sixth of seven beaten 6l at Moree yesterday in a handicap; clear chance based on the pick of her form; was entered at Moree Friday.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Fairly underwhelming when 6th last start at Moree. Yet to fire of late with no placings from 8 runs.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 16%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Beaten but by no means disgraced at career opener. Took valuable lessons. Big hike in distance at second start. Makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Jumped at $17.00 and overtook some late when 5th last start at Tamworth and having second race start. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Beaten just over 1l to finish fifth on debut at Tamworth at 16-1 three weeks ago; should improve with a run under his belt although it was only a modest start.
RSIS
At 16/1 improved late to finish 5th last time at Tamworth and fitter for debut run. Blinkers go on for the first time and racing over a longer distance. Not at all out of this race.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 49%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Put up a sound performance at Tamworth on debut. Took valuable lessons. Significantly up in distance for second outing. Can take a positive step forward here. Well In the mix.
ILB
Jumped at $5.50 and underwhelming when 6th last start at Tamworth but having second career run. Blinkers go on for the first time and stepping up in distance. Definite claims for punters.
RP
Close up behind Big Brad three weeks ago when sixth at Tamworth; hard to see him getting off the mark second time up.
RSIS
Started 9/2 and mediocre attempt when 6th last start at Tamworth but having second career run. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time. Rates as one of the key chances.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Narromine
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Brett Thompson striking at just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 48%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 47% Profit on Turnover
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Put up a sound performance in soft going at Narromine debut. Experience a positive. Among the dangers.
ILB
Was $5.00 and tailed off to finish 4th last start at Narromine but was on debut last time. Should be rolling forward early from the wide draw.
RP
Solid debut run at Narromine over 5½f when finishing fourth of six (just behind Nodefence) at 4-1 two weeks ago; couldn't rule out improvement although wouldn't get too carried away.
RSIS
Started at 4/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 4th last time at Narromine but was on debut last time. Should be rolling forward early from the wide draw.
Career
1: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Narromine
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Brett Thompson striking at just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -48% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 48%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 47% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Acquitted self well with debut placing at Narromine on a soft deck 17 Oct. Experience a positive. More a minor money chance here.
ILB
Good performance to run into 2nd last time at Narromine and was a debutant last start. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Has some claims.
RP
Creditable debut second in Narromine maiden over 6½f (closely matched with Knights Templar on that running) at 10-1 14 days ago; likely to be thereabouts.
RSIS
Improved to place when 2nd beaten by almost 3 1/2L last run at Narromine and having second career run. Likely to be well placed early. Could be in the mix.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Narromine
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
2: 0-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
AAP
Settled back and passed a few late in the Country Boosted Mdn at Tamworth second-up. Worth a look.
ILB
Backs up quickly. In the money when 3rd last time at Moree.
RP
Ran well when beaten half a length at Moree yesterday; has to be respected; held an entry at Moree Friday.
RSIS
On a short back up. In the money when 3rd last run at Moree.