Shortest win price
Valaroso (11)
2.50
Welcome to Seymour for the Go Seymour Go Nagambie Mdn Plate over 1200m on a soft 5 track under fine skies. It is time to dissect the yarn behind this three-year-old maiden contest where the punters have zeroed in on a few key hopes. Looking at the early win market order, Valaroso commands the attention at the head of betting, followed closely by Carnevale, Tirate, and Big Lap rounding out the leading quartet of fancies in the betting ring.
Valaroso represents the Ms C Alderson stable which is flying along and outperforming market expectations significantly, coming off a close second at Caulfield Heath over 1100m in a similar maiden plate where the form reads well for this assignment. Carnevale hails from the Ben, Will & Jd Hayes yard and resumes here after a nineteen-week break, having previously contested stakes company at Caulfield and tuned up with a solid trial. Tirate steps out on debut for C Maher as a colt out of the multiple group-winning mare Rubisaki, bringing a Cranbourne jump-out win to the table despite drawing out wide.
Further down the market, Big Lap catches the eye for A R McGregor with Craig Williams taking the steering duties after a highly encouraging debut effort at Geelong where it ran on hard into a minor placing with the fastest overall finishing sectionals of the race. Avedis pushes forward from barrier eleven as the designated leader, while several first starters add intrigue to the speed map. While barriers and debuts always throw up puzzles, the form points to a competitive battle amongst the main market fancies as punters search for the winner.
Shortest win price
Valaroso (11)
2.50
Back left · leaders right
Firststart
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Action Point · Negative
Watch Betting
If supported, follow in
Blue And Gold · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 59%
Carnevale · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Chip In · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Firststart
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). 3yo gelding making debut out of a lightly raced mare Iconic Girl. 3rd at recent Cranbourne jump-out. Warrants some attention first-up.
ILB
3yo by Blue Point racing as a debutant for trainer Grahame Begg. Respect the betting.
RP
From the same family as Mystic Way, a winner over 5½f; trainer more than capable of getting one ready first time out; can make his presence felt with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
Blue Point 3yo trained by Grahame Begg having first race start.
Career
2: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 59%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 59%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 42% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Kept fresh following return. Made minor headway from back half at Geelong at his second race start. Can make his presence felt with even breaks.
ILB
At $3.90 improved when 5th last time at Geelong. Should be in the finish.
RP
Not disgraced in fifth over 5½f at Geelong (maiden) last month; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
At 3/1 made ground when closing off to finish 5th last start at Geelong. Definite winning chance.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
First-up (19-weeks). Good debut effort in stakes company 4 Nov. Latest trial was solid enough. Capable of making an impact fresh in this line-up.
ILB
First up. Started $5.50 and didn't find the line when 7th last start at Caulfield but stepping down to a lower level. Has shown early pace in races to date. Rates as one of the key chances.
RP
Beaten 5½l in seventh in a handicap at Caulfield in May; back from an absence here; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Fresh today. Started 9/2 and tailed off to finish 7th last time at Caulfield on a heavy track but facing less formidable opponents. Expecting to settle positively. Strong claims in this.
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -27% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 45%
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
AAP
$180K first starter out of the Savabeel mare I'm Kate. 4th & 2nd at latest jump-outs. Nice gate. Would need a positive betting lead.
ILB
Career debut 3yo by Contributer for trainer Katherine Coleman & Peter G Moody. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Already gelded; New Zealander bred; making his racecourse bow; trainer can prepare one to win first time out; needs to be respected with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
Katherine Coleman & Peter G Moody 3yo by Contributer on debut.
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
Cost $25K. 3yo gelding a half-brother to Sandown Guineas winner Morton's Fork. Won a jump-out 28/9. Watch closely.
ILB
Debutant 3yo by Hellbent for Julius Sandhu. Watch betting.
RP
From the same family as Whatadilemma, a winner over 1m; first public outing; already gelded; looks likely to go well with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
Julius Sandhu trained 3yo debutant by Hellbent.
Career
4: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
E & D Browne striking at just 5%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 45%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 51% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Racing with consistency. Solid rally into the placings at Caulfield Heath second-up. Right in the mix again.
ILB
Made considerable ground when 3rd beaten by over 3L last start at Caulfield Heath and promising career start. Has not missed the money this campaign in 2 attempts. Could be in the mix.
RP
Not far behind Valaroso when third over 5½f at Caulfield (maiden) last month; without a win in four attempts although has finished second.
RSIS
Managed to finish 3rd beaten by more than 3L last time at Caulfield Heath and showing consistent performance in races. Been in the top three each start of late. Could feature here.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer SR
Negative
K & K Keys striking at just 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 37%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
Trials (2:0-0-0). 3yo gelding having his first start. Out of a Exceed And Excel mare Kibibi. Heading into debut with two lead-up trials. Would need to see some market confidence.
ILB
3yo first starter sired by Nicconi for trainer Ken Keys & Kasey Keys. Watch the market.
RSIS
Debutant 3yo by Nicconi for Ken Keys & Kasey Keys.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Phillip & Tommy Stokes striking at just 11%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -46% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Set for second campaign (23-weeks). Found the debut assignment beyond him at Bendigo 2 May. 2nd & 1st since at the jump-outs. Watch betting.
ILB
Fresh today after a break. Odds of $8.00 and tailed off to finish 10th last start at Bendigo but having second career run. Will find this grade easier. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
Never posed a significant threat on his debut at Bendigo at 7-1 in May; returns from a break today; could improve but still hard to see him winning here.
RSIS
Back from a break. Started 7/1 and didn't threaten when 10th last start at Bendigo but having second race start. Challenged by less formidable competitors. Good chance in this.
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Firststart
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
Trials (1:0-1-0). Cost $40K. Full brother to the smart stayer Our Chief. Encouraging performance in most recent barrier trial. Big watch on debut.
ILB
Initial race appearance 3yo by Tagaloa for Danny O'brien. Watch the market moves.
RP
Related to Our Chief (winner from 7f up to 1m4f); already a gelding; racing education begins here for this son of Tagaloa; passed over unless attracting strong support as he has his work cut out against experienced rivals.
RSIS
3yo debutant sired by Tagaloa for trainer Danny O'brien.
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Firststart
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 47% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 10%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 26%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Ethan Brown in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 73%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). 3yo colt making debut out of the multiple times Group winning mare Rubisaki. Recent win of a Cranbourne 800m jump-out. Draw could be an issue but worth keeping safe on debut.
ILB
First appearance at the races 3yo by Written Tycoon for trainer Ciaron Maher. Watch the betting.
RP
Yard does well here with debutants; can be in the mix with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
Racing as a debutant 3yo by Written Tycoon for trainer Ciaron Maher.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 59%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 42% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Just beaten in the 3yo C&G Mdn Plate at Caulfield Heath at second outing. Heading the right way and competitive here.
ILB
Narrowly beaten last time at Caulfield Heath. Could feature here.
RP
Favourite and just came up short over 5½f at Caulfield (maiden) three weeks ago.
RSIS
Narrowly denied a win last time at Caulfield Heath. Can't leave out of your calculations.
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 11% POT in L100 Runners
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
AAP
3yo filly having her first start here out of the 3-time WA winning mare Arcadia Rose. 6th & 2nd at most recent jump-outs. Odds may prove best guide here.
ILB
Simon Zahra trained 3yo debutant by So You Think. Respect the betting.
RP
Sibling of Secadia (6½f winner); makes first racecourse appearance; a watching brief the best policy against runners with experience.
RSIS
Simon Zahra 3yo by So You Think having first race start.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 16% POT in L100 Runners
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
Cost $30K. Out of the city winning mare Hard Squeeze this 3yo filly is heading to the races off a recent 2nd at a Mornington jump-out. One to watch out for.
ILB
Matt Laurie 3yo by Shamus Award having first race start. Betting is the best guide.
RSIS
3yo first starter sired by Shamus Award for trainer Matt Laurie.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Fresh. Left a decent impression on debut at Bendigo under betting interest 6 Sep. Better for it. Warrants attention.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Won narrowly by a head last run at Cranbourne. Been in the money 2 from 2 attempts this campaign.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Really dug deep when winning last run at Cranbourne. Has run into the money 2 from 2 attempts of late.
Career
1: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Highly encouraging debut performance at Geelong when in the market. Benefits from the experience. Craig Williams engaged. Worth a look.
ILB
Close to a win last run at Geelong and fitter for debut run. Possesses good finishing speed. Should go very close.
RP
Beaten narrowly first time out at Geelong (85-40) two weeks ago over 5½f seeming green; entitled to have come on for that run.
RSIS
Narrowly beaten last start at Geelong and having second career run. Should get going late. One of the punters top hopes.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 62% lower than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 75% in L100 rides
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fair performance without threatening at Caulfield Heath at $21. Can make her presence felt.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Started at $10.00 and came in 4th last run at Ballarat but has the ideal draw.
RP
Fair effort when beaten 2½l over 5f at Ballarat (maiden) on Friday.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Started 9/1 and finished 4th last run at Ballarat but can save some energy from the stall.
Career
3: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
2: 0-1-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Battled home okay at Bendigo last outing. Switching to 1200m. Only for exotics.
ILB
Started at $5.00 and made ground when closing off to finish 4th last start at Bendigo and can find a nice position from the draw. Respect the betting.
RP
Without a win in three attempts although has finished second; not beaten that far in fourth (just under 4l) at Bendigo over 7f (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and chased well when 4th last start at Bendigo and has a positive draw. Watch betting.
Career
1: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Liam Howley striking at just 6%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 43%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Promising debut performance at Echuca 19 Sep at skinny odds. Since trialled at Caulfield Heath 1 Oct. Will need to come on again in tougher affair.
ILB
Was strong late when 3rd last time at Echuca and was a debutant last start. Has the early speed to burn across from the wide gate. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Narrowly beaten on his debut at Echuca at 10-11 three weeks ago; should benefit for having a run under his belt.
RSIS
Ran on strongly when 3rd last run at Echuca and was a debutant last start. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall. Could be in the mix.