Shortest win price
Real Comedy (5)
2.50
Welcome to Seymour for the Tahbilk Mdn Plate over the 1200m on a Soft 5 track under fine skies. The win market lines up with Real Comedy sitting at the head of affairs, closely followed by North Dakota, Rough Enuff, and Quemax holding down the next lines in the betting. Punters looking for a yarn here have plenty to chew on with a fascinating mix of resuming gallopers and debutants stepping out on this Victorian circuit. As the race jumped at 1:30 pm AEDT, let us take a look at how the main chances shaped up in the market and what their previous form figures tell us about their prospects on the day.
Heading the market is Real Comedy, prepared by M Price & M Kent Jnr, who brings over some intriguing New Zealand form after finishing a narrow second on debut at Wanganui over this exact distance on a soft track. That performance featured the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start, suggesting this backmarker has plenty of upside across the ditch. Right behind in the betting is North Dakota from the M, W & J Hawkes yard, returning here for a second campaign following sound placings at Caulfield Heath and Sandown last time in work. With some handy jump-outs under the belt to round out the preparation, this runner looks well furnished to make a bold account fresh. Another one to respect in the market is Quemax for D T O'Brien, a debutant who cost a tidy sum and tuned up nicely with a recent second at a Flemington jump-out from barrier two.
Further down the order, the speed map indicates Mr Spendedoe taking up the running from the inside alley, while runners like Sheer Panic boast early speed which can prove a real advantage on this track. Rough Enuff also commands some attention returning for a second campaign for the stable after placing on debut at Pakenham last term, with Jamie Mott taking the steer. While it is never easy sorting out a big maiden field, the visiting form lines and stable placements give punters plenty of angles to ponder in what turned into a cracking contest at Seymour.
Shortest win price
Real Comedy (5)
2.50
Back left · leaders right
Offmidfield
Firststart
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Mr Spendedoe · Negative
Trainer SR
Julius Sandhu striking at just 6%
North Dakota · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Quemax · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Real Comedy · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Speed map
Onpace
AAP
Led and fought on bravely for second at Moe first up. Better for the outing. Can lead or take a sit. Shapes as a major player.
Career
3: 0-1-1
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1225m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Trainer SR
Negative
Julius Sandhu striking at just 6%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 53%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 34%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 30 days
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Strong SP profile. Bendigo 4yo+ Mdn Plate placegetter 6 Sep. Failed to threaten at Geelong latest outing.
RP
Winless in three starts but has shown promise with second his top showing; finished tenth of 12 over 5½f at Geelong (maiden) last month; others more likely.
Career
3: 0-1-1
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 22% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Returns for second campaign (23-weeks). Form to date sound. Furnished with time and will take benefit from recent jump-outs. Should take plenty of beating fresh.
RP
Missed out by half a length over 7½f at Caulfield (maiden) in April; returns from a break here.
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
On Debut
Positive
First race start
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). Cost $60K. Out of a 3-time winning mare On The Que Tee. Recent 2nd at a Flemington jump-out. Drawn well. Warrants some attention on debut.
RP
New Zealander bred; first start under rules for this son of Circus Maximus; very interesting as some good aspects to his profile.
Career
1: 0-1-0
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Wanganui
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer SR
Negative
M G & M Price & Kent striking at just 12%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (22-weeks). First run across the ditch for new stable. Ex H N Auret in New Zealand. Excellent debut performance when just nabbed at Wanganui at $18.50. Has scope. One to watch.
RP
Went down by just a head running for the first time at Wanganui over this distance at 18-1 five months ago; first start for current trainer; returns from a layoff; must make above-average progress to figure.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Wendy Kelly striking at just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 29%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (48-days). Solid performance in defeat in the Mdn Plate at Pakenham Synthetic at second outing. Has an adverse draw. Positive last start but needs to build further on that effort.
RP
Sound effort when 25-1 second at Pakenham 48 days ago.
Career
4: 0-0-1
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -43% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 59%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 42% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Returns for second campaign (27-weeks). Placed at Pakenham on debut last campaign. J Mott rides. Feasible to think he has more to offer this time in. Don't take lightly.
RP
Finished last of six over 7f at Cranbourne (maiden) six months ago; returns from an absence here; has claims as has bits and pieces of decent form.
Career
32: 0-4-6
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Benalla
3: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
3: 0-0-0
Track Moulamein
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2520m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1106m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-1-0
Going Good
26: 0-3-6
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Neil Farley current POT is 38% below Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 62%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 65% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 38% in L100 rides
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
AAP
Resuming after a (67-weeks) spell. 4th & 5th at the jump-outs. Expect will find these too sharp.
RP
Finished tailed off at Warracknabeal over 1m2f (maiden) last June; has not been firing consistently and yet to open his account after 32 starts; not seen for some time now; a few rivals look in good form so passed over.
Career
8: 0-1-1
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-1-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1105m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Prominent, showed plenty of ticker to just go under at Geelong. Has early speed. Others carry more punch.
RP
Finished in front of Ubique and Mr Spendedoe over 5½f at Geelong (maiden) when going close (sent off 80-1) four weeks ago; stepped up on his last two starts; Luke Nolen a notable booking.
Speed map
Offpace
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 29 days
AAP
Freshened since return. Led, gave away under pressure at Donald off long spell. Sound claims.
Speed map
Midfield
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (19-weeks). Just collared in Maiden company at Echuca first-up last campaign. More a minor money chance here.
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer SR
Negative
Ben Brisbourne striking at just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 25%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
4yo mare making debut for Ben Brisbourne. Out of a Daylami mare Takriyma. Winner of latest Flemington jump-out. Draw could be an issue but look to market for a further guide.
RP
This daughter of Endless Drama makes debut under rules; must be considered.
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). 4yo mare makes debut here. Is out of a lightly raced mare Plucky Sienna. 4th at latest Cranbourne jump-out. Market may offer more insight.
RP
This daughter of Rich Enuff is having her first start under rules; in with a shout with signs of encouragement in profile - form of her trainer is an obvious plus.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 20%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jett Stanley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 33%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Freshened after return. Stationed midfield and never landed a blow at Bendigo 6 Sep. Hard to warm to here.
RP
Last of 11 over 6½f at Bendigo (maiden) last month; makes limited appeal.
Career
7: 0-0-2
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1170m
2: 0-0-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ran on okay without troubling at Echuca. Hope for exotics only.
RP
Finished seventh but only beaten 2l over 5f at Echuca (maiden) last month; produced a string of consistent efforts and signs of improvement on last two runs.
Career
9: 0-0-1
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
2: 0-0-1
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 18% POT in L100 Runners
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (14-weeks). Close in Maiden company at Swan Hill first-up last campaign. Looks up against it.
RP
Not disgraced when fourth over 7½f at Ballarat (maiden) in June.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 28%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 304 day break (> 300 days)
AAP
Back for second campaign (43-weeks). A long way off them at Kyneton on debut. Happy to risk at this stage.
RP
Beaten on her debut at Kyneton at 16-1 in December; likely there is more to come; returns from a layoff.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
AAP
Freshened. Had a low-key debut at Geelong 11 Sep. Looking elsewhere at this stage.
RP
Held seventh of 12 but was making her first appearance at Geelong at 28-1 last month; should be better for that run.