Yarra Valley (VIC) horses tips & previews

5 Nov, 1:46 pm AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Yarra Valley (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 24 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 24 OctYarra Valley (VIC)Change

Race 1 — Manhari Mdn Plate 1009m · jumps Sat 24 Oct, 12:41 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome to Yarra Valley for the Manhari Mdn Plate over the 1009m sprint trip on a Good 4 surface with showers about for the meeting. Punters diving into the early win market have settled on Confidential Girl to lead the charge, with Exacting Standard next in line, followed closely by Madame Petite and Velocite Belle rounding out the top echelon of the betting order. It is a fascinating three-year-old maiden clash where seasoned runners lock horns with a handful of intriguing newcomers ready to make their presence felt on the quick back-up of trials and jumpouts.

Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter prices, Exacting Standard returns here for Shane Nichols and Hayden Black from barrier 6 with Teodore Nugent steering, boasting a sound placing at Bendigo on debut during the previous campaign before a fifth at Pakenham. Meanwhile, the master stable of C Maher saddles up Confidential Girl from barrier 3 with Carleen Hefel in the saddle, an expensive purchase by Bivouac out of Hollywood Mistress who brings strong Cranbourne jumpout form to her race track debut. Velocite Belle represents A & S Freedman from barrier 5 with Nadia Daniels aboard, having put together two solid fourth-place efforts at Geelong and Mornington before being given time to mature ahead of this return.

For punters searching for further angles in the yarn, the speed map suggests Velocite Belle will look to zip forward from barrier 5 to use early speed as a handy weapon on this tight circuit, while Aerial Pursuit looks for backmarker luck from barrier 2 for A & S Freedman after fading late when last seen. With Ciaron Maher runners outperforming market expectations of late and Teodore Nugent riding in hot recent form, this Yarra Valley opener sets up as a beauty for anyone keen on dissecting the early three-year-old form lines.

Race notes

3Y MDN-SW,3yo,Maiden
GOOD4
Showers
7 runners

Shortest win price

Confidential Girl (4)

2.05

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

4Confidential Girl
5Madame Petite
6Skyblock

Backmarker

3Quarters

Midfield

1Aerial Pursuit

Onpace

2Exacting Standard

Leader

7Velocite Belle

Aerial Pursuit · Positive
Trainer ROI
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Exacting Standard · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -61% POT in their L100 Races
Quarters · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 39% lower than Career Avg.
Confidential Girl · Positive
Hot Trainer
Ciaron Maher in good form, out performing market 29%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Aerial PursuitJ: Damien Thornton·T: A & S Freedman258kg91: 0-0-0$18.00$4.60

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

9Bendigo1000m13 May 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD46.9L

Insights

Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Second campaign (23-weeks). Maturity upside. Found the debut assignment beyond him at Bendigo 13 May. Learnt plenty there.

ILB

Fresh after a break. Started $5.50 and didn't threaten when 9th last run at Bendigo but fitter for debut run. Has a positive barrier. Not dismissing.

Well beaten behind the runner-up, Exacting Standard, at Bendigo when beaten on his debut at 5-1 five months ago; obvious scope for improvement; should be better for that run.

RSIS

Resuming. At 9/2 tailed off to finish 9th last run at Bendigo but was on debut last time. Drawn nicely.

2Exacting StandardJ: Teodore Nugent·T: Shane Nichols & Hayden Black658kg2 52: 0-1-0$4.20$2.05

Career

2: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Pakenham1100m29 May 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY85L
2Bendigo1000m13 May 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -61% POT in their L100 Races
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Kicks off second campaign (21-weeks). Placed at Bendigo on debut last campaign. Bold first-up showing anticipated.

ILB

First up after 21 weeks and hit the line well when 2nd first up last preparation at Bendigo. Tough competitor.

Out of the frame (beaten 5l in fifth) over 5½f at Pakenham (maiden) five months ago; others are preferred.

RSIS

Resuming and hit the line well when 2nd beaten by 1/2L resuming last preparation at Bendigo. Worth a lot of thought in this race.

3QuartersJ: Joe Bowditch·T: Mark & Levi Kavanagh458kg8 102: 0-0-0$21.00$5.00

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Caulfield Heath1000m29 Apr 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD46.7L
8Caulfield Heath1100m20 Dec 2025 · 2yo · GOOD412.7L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 39% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 69%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 73% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 42% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Resuming (25-weeks). Given further time to mature. Wasn't up to it in first two campaigns but benefitted by a good break. Right in this fresh in this affair.

ILB

First run back from a break. Started $101.00 and well beaten when 10th last time at Caulfield Heath but up against weaker rivals. Gets back and needs luck. Better to look elsewhere.

Finished last of ten at Caulfield six months ago in a handicap; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.

RSIS

First run back after a break. At 100/1 average performance when 10th last time at Caulfield Heath but facing less formidable opponents. Gets back and needs luck.

4Confidential GirlJ: Carleen Hefel·T: C Maher356kg–$2.05$1.30

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Hot Trainer
Positive
Ciaron Maher in good form, out performing market 29%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

$170k purchase. Half-sister to Listed winner Aardvark. Introducing a filly by Bivouac and out of the All American mare Hollywood Mistress. Won most recent Cranbourne jumpout.

ILB

Bivouac 3yo having first race appearance for trainer Ciaron Maher. Market as guide.

First racecourse start; newcomers from this yard are capable of striking; can be in the thick of things with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

First race appearance 3yo by Bivouac for trainer Ciaron Maher.

5Madame PetiteJ: Fred W Kersley·T: L Smith756kg5$4.00$2.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

5Caulfield Heath800m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.5L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). Comes into this off a Camperdown jumpout win. Odds may prove best guide here.

ILB

3yo first starter by Anders for Lindsey Smith. Follow the money.

From the same family as I Tell Ya What, a winner over 1m; first racecourse start; looks likely to go well as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

3yo first starter by Anders for trainer Lindsey Smith.

6SkyblockJ: Holly Durnan·T: L & T Corstens & W Larkin156kg–$34.00$8.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 47% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 103%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). $230k purchase. Out of a full sister to Listed winner Francee. Heads into debut off a Flemington jumpout win and is in an astute stable.

ILB

3yo by Zoustar racing as a debutant for Leon Corstens, Troy Corstens & Will Larkin and will appreciate a good draw. Watch the market moves.

Shares a dam with Gem Tycoon, a 6f winner; sire can inject some quality; could be hard to beat as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

Leon Corstens, Troy Corstens & Will Larkin 3yo debutant by Zoustar and gets a favourable draw.

7Velocite BelleJ: Nadia Daniels·T: A & S Freedman556kg4 42: 0-0-0$8.00$3.30

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Mornington1200m25 May 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT52.9L
4Geelong1100m1 Apr 2026 · 2YF MDN-SW · GOOD42.1L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 56% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Nadia Daniels 75% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 297%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Nadia Daniels winning at 52% POT in last 100 rides
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
1st Up
Negative
May need this run

Comments

AAP

Back for second campaign (21-weeks). Given time to mature. Form to date sound. Feasible to think she has more to offer this time in.

ILB

First up after a break. Odds of $8.00 and lost momentum late when 4th last start at Mornington. Should jump out and bowl along. Major chance.

Fair effort (beaten just under 3l) at Mornington over 6f (maiden) five months ago.

RSIS

Racing fresh after a break. At 7/1 couldn't maintain the pace when 4th last time at Mornington. Has early pace and positions nicely. Will go very close.

Odds correct as at Sat 24 Oct, 12:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.