Shortest win price
Nightowl (3)
2.15
The Bet365 Bet Boost Mdn Plate at Yarra Valley is a 1968-metre three-year-old-plus maiden over soft ground with showers falling — a proper slog for maidens. The race jumps at 1:56 pm AEDT. In the win market, Nightowl is shortest, followed by Zverev, then Sentaloa and Mehsun in close quarters. It's a modest field hunting a first win, and the soft track will favour runners who can shift weight efficiently and stay interested over the extra yardage.
Nightowl carries the market quote but the form reads mixed. Brad Rawiller rides from barrier 4, and the jockey-trainer combo with Andrew Noblet has lost 100 per cent of profit on turnover in their last hundred runners — a harsh stat that warrants caution. The most recent outing at Geelong on identical soft ground saw Nightowl never in the call second-up, finishing sixth, 11 lengths adrift. The rating of 89 and the comment about stamina being on trial suggest Nightowl will need to improve sharply to make this stick. Zverev, at 59.5 kilograms from barrier 1, sits next in the betting and tells a more promising yarn. Two early runs show genuine promise: a third at Seymour on soft ground and a fourth at Pakenham Synthetic. Jake Noonan and G Eurell are a hot jockey-trainer combination outperforming market expectations by 75 per cent, and the rating of 94 hints at a runner still learning the game. The comment flags that Zverev may now be ready for this extra ground.
Sentaloa, on the third line, deserves attention despite not dominating the market. Rated 100, this runner holds early speed — a genuine advantage on a circuit like Yarra Valley — and was close to the pace at Bairnsdale on the last outing, boxing away gamely when the winner burst clear. The trainer M M Laurie runs at just 5 per cent profit on turnover, which is bleak, but the form comment and the distance increase suit the profile. Sentaloa's willingness to persist suggests there is a roughie story worth backing here, especially if the early speed fetches a midfield position and the extra 468 metres sharpens the race fitness.
Shortest win price
Nightowl (3)
2.15
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Mehsun · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Molesworth · Positive
Trainer ROI
Runners from this stable currently going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Nightowl · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Zverev · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Career
6: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
2: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -34% POT in their L100 Races
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Midfield, no rally and went to line tamely at Bendigo when second-up. Stamina on trial here.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Started at $10.00 and was well beaten when 8th last start at Bendigo. Has some claims.
RP
Attempting to get off the mark at the seventh time of asking (fifth his best finish so far); didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Bendigo (beaten 5l) over 1m (maiden) a week ago; others more persuasive.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. At 9/1 weakened under pressure when 8th last run at Bendigo. Watch for a sign in the market.
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Offpace
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ridden cold and never in the picture at Pakenham Synthetic after lengthy absence. Strips in better shape. Sound claims.
ILB
At $6.50 average performance when 8th last run at Pakenham Synthetic. Can go close.
RP
Split a number of these rivals over 1m at Pakenham (maiden) when beaten 8l three weeks ago; must be high on list as finished third in January and had excuses last time (crowded).
RSIS
Started at 11/2 and average performance when 8th last run at Pakenham Synthetic. Can take this out.
Career
13: 0-5-0
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2007m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 0-3-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Never in the call at Geelong second-up. More a minor money chance here.
ILB
Odds of $10.00 and unsatisfactory performance when 6th last start at Geelong. Jockey Brad Rawiller and trainer Andrew Noblet link up well. Should be in the finish.
RP
Yet to open his account after 12 starts; beaten 11l into sixth over 1m1f at Geelong (maiden) two weeks ago; others more appealing.
RSIS
At 9/1 just average when 6th last start at Geelong. Jockey Brad Rawiller consistently rides well for this stable. Expecting a strong showing.
Career
2: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1429m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 75%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Two early runs show promise. Battled home okay at Pakenham Synthetic at second outing. May now be looking for this extra ground.
ILB
Was $4.60 and didn't finish off when 4th last time at Pakenham Synthetic and has minimal work to do from the draw. Absolutely right in this.
RP
Finished in front of several of these over 1m at Pakenham (maiden) when not beaten far 19 days ago; others appeal more.
RSIS
At 7/2 outmuscled when 4th last run at Pakenham Synthetic and will appreciate a good stall. Should go well.
Career
8: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-1
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1614m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Well back and made limited headway at Pakenham Synthetic. Can't enthuse.
ILB
At $51.00 closed off nicely when 5th last time at Pakenham Synthetic. Yet to break maiden status after 8 starts. Form will be tested here.
RP
Yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at eight; split a number of these rivals over 1m at Pakenham (maiden) beaten 5l 19 days ago; others are preferred.
RSIS
Was 50/1 and overtook some late when 5th last time at Pakenham Synthetic. Yet to break through after 8 runs.
Career
9: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1620m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -49% POT in their L100 Races
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
In touch but ran out of petrol quickly and finished a long way down the track at Bairnsdale. Coming back in distance. Hard to warm to.
ILB
Jumped at $14.00 and struggled with the pace when 6th last time at Bairnsdale. Has plenty of early speed. Yet to break through after 9 starts. Simply cannot have today.
RP
Sixth beaten 15l over 1m3f at Bairnsdale (maiden) two weeks ago with two of these rivals behind; yet to open her account after nine starts; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Started 13/1 and folded up in the straight when 6th last run at Bairnsdale. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Still in maiden grade after 9 starts.
Career
6: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1479m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Never sighted at Tatura. First real test of stamina here. Only for exotics.
ILB
Was $16.00 and disappointing display when 9th last run at Tatura.
RP
Finished ninth of 12 at Tatura over 1m (maiden) last month; appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; excuses last time (hampered) and easy to see her making an impression.
RSIS
Started 15/1 and unimpressive effort when 9th last start at Tatura.
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 45% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Key Jockey
Positive
Dylan Dunn winning at 38% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sent out $51 when battled home to finish 6th at Kyneton. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Started $51.00 and finished 6th last time at Kyneton. Few more classier types in this race.
RP
Best she's managed so far is fourth from five career starts; was held in sixth (Kyneton) 16 days ago upped to 1m1f; others more likely.
RSIS
Was 50/1 and ran 6th last time at Kyneton.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1744m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Melea Castle current POT is 52% below Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 61%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 79% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
AAP
Moderate form profile overall. Failed to threaten in choppy conditions at Bairnsdale. Drops to shorter trip. Looks a safer place proposition.
ILB
Was $5.00 and looked outclassed when 10th last start at Bairnsdale but gets a favourable draw. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Looks highly doubtful.
RP
Tailed off at Bairnsdale over 1m3f (maiden) two weeks ago; in with a big shout.
RSIS
Was 4/1 and weakened to finish 10th last start at Bairnsdale but can find a nice position from the draw. Gets back and needs luck.
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Close to the pace, lacked response when winner burst clear but kept boxing away at Bairnsdale last outing. Distance increase suits. Worth a look.
ILB
Managed to place 2nd beaten by 5L last start at Bairnsdale and good career start. Placed at every start this campaign. Has to be in the finish.
RP
Series of good efforts to his name and seems to be going the right way; fair runner-up of 13 over 1m at Bairnsdale (maiden) 12 days ago; likely to go well.
RSIS
Finished with intent when 2nd last time at Bairnsdale and promising career start. Has run into the placings all attempts of late. Strong chance.
Career
9: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1209m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Midfield, finished off evenly through line at Geelong. Others carry more punch.
ILB
At $101.00 came in 5th last start at Geelong. A 9 start maiden. The large claim from Liana Wood helps. Most likely not today.
RP
Finished fifth but wasn't beaten too far (4½l) over 7½f at Geelong (maiden) four weeks ago.
RSIS
Was 100/1 and finished 5th last time at Geelong. Still a maiden after 9 runs. The large claim from Liana Wood should help.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 50% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 116%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Largely struggled to date. Switching to 1968m. Needs to lift.
ILB
Came in 6th last run at Ballarat and dropping in distance.
RP
Beaten 7l 15 days ago at Ballarat upped to 1m5f.
RSIS
Came in 6th last start at Ballarat and back to a shorter distance.
Career
14: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
4: 0-0-1
Track Bairnsdale
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1411m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-2
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Ernie Francese striking at just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -77% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 79%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 77% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Finished out the back at Bairnsdale. Drops to shorter trip. Form doesn't inspire.
ILB
Was $8.50 and unimpressive effort when 8th last run at Bairnsdale. Yet to fire this campaign.
RP
Useful at this level; was eighth of ten, beaten 18l, (Bairnsdale) 12 days ago upped to 1m3f.
RSIS
Started 15/2 and unsatisfactory performance when 8th last run at Bairnsdale. Yet to fire in recent runs.