Shortest win price
Dual Mastery (2)
1.60
Welcome to Toowoomba for race four on the card, featuring the Lawrence & Hanson Mdn Hcp over 1640m. The track is rated a soft 5 under overcast skies, setting up an intriguing battle for the maidens. Looking at how the win market is shaping up, punters have zeroed in on Dual Mastery as the early elect, followed closely by Narrow Openings, I'm On Fire, and Wingeandwin rounding out the top markers in the betting order.
Digging into the form behind those shorter prices, Dual Mastery comes in with some solid metro-grade credentials under Jaden Lloyd for Emma Fouchard, having stuck to guns to fill the minors at Doomben and running competitively at Eagle Farm prior. Meanwhile, Narrow Openings is backing up quickly for K R Kemp after offering little to catch the eye on debut here over 1300m on heavy ground, though the extra ground and experience gained could help spark some improvement. I'm On Fire is another drawing interest for William Kropp after getting back and not being totally disgraced on a soft deck at Gatton, and should appreciate being fitter second-up over this longer trip.
Further down the race analysis, speed maps show Josephine Of Tuffy looking to dictate terms as the leader, while runners like Wingeandwin offer exotics appeal after a solid rally into the placings at Warwick over 1500m. It is shaping up as a tight maiden affair where the on-pace runners will look to control proceedings, but punters should weigh up all the recent track efforts carefully before diving into the yarn.
Shortest win price
Dual Mastery (2)
1.60
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Narrow Openings · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 37% lower than Career Avg.
Dual Mastery · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Handsome Triumph · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 69%
Bivongi Boy · Negative
Trainer SR
Kathy Stabe striking at just 4%
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 37% lower than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
AAP
Backing up quickly. Offered little to catch the eye on debut this track 24 Oct. Learnt plenty there. Extra ground may help. More a minor money chance here.
ILB
On a quick turnaround. Odds of $14.00 and came in 6th last start at this track but having second career run. Likely to get back. Drawn nicely. Others are better.
RP
Finished sixth and beaten 8l first time out (at Toowoomba over 6½f) at 13-1 last week; clear chance.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Started 13/1 and came in 6th last start here but was a debutant last start. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
8: 0-2-2
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 0-1-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-2-2
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form
AAP
Knocking on the door. Competitive in metro company two back 19 Sep. Stuck to his guns to fill the minors at Doomben. Has a big say here.
ILB
Maintained a solid pace but eventually weakened to finish 2nd last run at Doomben. Has shown early pace in races to date. Been in the placegetters each attempt this preparation. Very tidy performer.
RP
Went down by half a length at Doomben four weeks ago in a maiden; has taken a step forward the last twice but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at eight; passed over as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.
RSIS
Put together a strong on-pace performance when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last run at Doomben. Displays good tactical pace. Has run into the money 3 from 3 attempts recently. Good tough competitor that can be supported.
Career
4: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Going Unknown
1: 0-1-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 69%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 63%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 45% POT in L100 Runners
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Steps out for third run new stable/region. Winner too strong but ran on for the minors at Warwick second-up. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Was strong late when 3rd beaten by over 6L last run at Warwick. Has run into the money all attempts this preparation. Will need to find a few more lengths.
RP
6l third when close behind Wingeandwin (Warwick) three weeks ago upped to 7½f; not yet off the mark in four attempts although has finished second.
RSIS
Improved to place when 3rd last start at Warwick. In the top three at every start of late.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Kathy Stabe striking at just 4%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 31%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 54% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
AAP
Failed to threaten in soft going at Gatton first up as an outsider. Fitter second-up. Can play a role.
ILB
Jumped at $91.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last start at Gatton. Considering others.
RP
Finished behind I'm On Fire over 7f at Gatton (maiden) when beaten 20l (tenth of 11) two weeks ago; this now his fifth attempt to get off the mark; others more persuasive.
RSIS
At 90/1 couldn't maintain the pace when 10th last time at Gatton.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Beaudesert
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
C & K Geran striking at just 7%
Key Rider
Positive
Nozi Tomizawa 28% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 29%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Well beaten in two runs to date. Others rate stronger.
ILB
At $41.00 didn't find the line when 9th last start at Gatton but has a nice advantage with a good alley. Priced to finish behind most.
RP
Ninth of 12 in a maiden (Gatton) 15 days ago upped to 7f; one to be interested in.
RSIS
At 40/1 faded away to finish 9th last time at Gatton but drawn the rails.
Career
7: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
4: 0-0-1
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1710m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 25% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 25% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced on a soft deck at Gatton for new trainer. Fitter second-up and the longer trip helps. Sound claims.
ILB
Jumped at $11.00 and came in 6th last time at Gatton. Has some claims.
RP
Winless in seven starts but has shown promise with third his top showing; not disgraced in sixth over 7f at Gatton (maiden) two weeks ago on debut for this trainer; has been on the scene in the recent past and deserves respect.
RSIS
Started 10/1 and ran 6th last run at Gatton. Worthy of strong consideration.
Career
12: 0-3-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dalby
1: 0-0-1
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Track Corowa
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1675m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-2-3
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
C & K Geran striking at just 7%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Kayla Barker 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 29%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
AAP
Unable to make an impression this venue. Drops to shorter trip. Super fit from racing, can play a role if she gets the breaks.
ILB
Jumped at $3.30 and finished 4th last time at this track. Happy to overlook that run. Won't be far away during the run. Kayla Barker takes a large claim. Should go well.
RP
Has largely been consistent of late; winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at 12; didn't run too badly when out of the frame here (beaten 4l) dropped down to 1m1½f two weeks ago in a maiden; meeting some horses in good form and can be taken on.
RSIS
At 9/4 came in 4th last time at this track. May see an upturn in form. Won't be far away during the run. Large claim helps. Major chance.
Career
7: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
2: 0-0-0
Track Warwick
1: 0-1-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1650m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 39% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Key Rider
Positive
Aidan Keeley 61% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 49%
Key Jockey
Positive
Aidan Keeley winning at 50% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
AAP
Solid rally into the placings at Warwick. Hope for exotics only.
ILB
Managed to finish 2nd beaten by almost 3 1/2L last time at Warwick and getting better in recent performances. Good chance in this.
RP
Finished second of 14 at Warwick over 7½f (handicap) 21 days ago; stepped up on her last two starts.
RSIS
Ran home into 2nd beaten by close to 3 1/2L last time at Warwick and showing improvement in recent outings. Will go close.
Rating · IRD
20
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
AAP
Form to date uninspiring. Big prices and modest returns in early runs. Looks tested.
ILB
Performed below standard when 11th last start at Warwick.
RSIS
Disappointing effort when 11th last run at Warwick.
Career
6: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Stanthorpe
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to threaten at Stanthorpe second-up. Significantly up in distance. Only for the minors here.
ILB
Odds of $10.00 and mediocre performance when 9th last start at Stanthorpe but going up in trip. Dropping weight. Long shot.
RP
Finished ninth, beaten a fair way at Stanthorpe two weeks ago in a maiden.
RSIS
Was 9/1 and just average when 9th last start at Stanthorpe but facing a rise in trip. Gets some weight taken off.
Career
8: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Dalby
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1414m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 30%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 40% Profit on Turnover
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Ordinary performance in small field this course. Coming back in distance. Super fit from racing, looks more a place prospect.
ILB
Was $10.00 and tailed off to finish 6th last start around here.
RP
This is her grade; not far behind Josephine Of Tuffy when sixth two weeks ago upped to 1m1½f in a maiden.
RSIS
Was 9/1 and looked outclassed when 6th last start at this track.
Career
12: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
4: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1840m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1890m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Track Stats
Negative
Tends to struggle at this track
AAP
Performance just fair in soft going at Gatton when second-up at $13. Hope for exotics only.
ILB
Jumped at $13.00 and finished 7th last time at Gatton.
RP
Not beaten that far over 7f at Gatton (maiden) 15 days ago; she meets the required standard ability wise.
RSIS
Odds of 12/1 and came in 7th last start at Gatton.
Career
20: 0-2-5
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilcoy
2: 0-0-1
Track Lightning Ridge
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1170m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
13: 0-1-3
Going Soft
4: 0-0-2
Going Unknown
3: 0-1-0
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run
AAP
Last, unleashed driving charge late at Kilcoy. New to Toowoomba. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Caught the eye when 3rd last start at Kilcoy and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Goes down in weight.
RP
Decent effort when 28-1 third at Kilcoy upped to 7½f 25 days ago in a maiden; signs of improvement on last two runs but hasn't been able to quite get his neck in front.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the top three when 3rd beaten by 3 1/4L last run at Kilcoy and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Gets a reduction in weight.