Toowoomba (QLD) horses tips & previews

9 Nov, 2:00 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Toowoomba (QLD), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 31 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 31 OctToowoomba (QLD)Change

Race 5 — Create With Cottee Hcp (C3) 1640m · jumps Sat 31 Oct, 8:44 pm AEDT

Race preview

Welcome back, punters, for a fascinating night under lights at Toowoomba where the track is rated a Soft5 with overcast skies. We are looking at a competitive Class 3 handicap over the 1640m trip, and the win market has found its early groove. Looking at the order of operations in the betting ring, Data Leak holds down the shortest quote at the top of the market, followed closely by Abraham sitting next in line. Golden Loom and Switchblade aren't far behind in the market order, with Mockridge, Causeways, and Bringme rounding out the rest of the runners as we get set for a cracking yarn on the home deck.

Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter prices, Data Leak jumps from barrier 2 for trainer K R Kemp with Montanna Savva in the saddle. This runner likes to head forward and tends to reserve its best efforts for the home track, coming off a solid fourth at Eagle Farm over 1820m. Meanwhile, Abraham lines up from barrier 5 for trainer Nick Keal and jockey Kelsey Lenton, returning fresh here after failing to threaten at the Gold Coast over 1800m. Switchblade is another interesting character in the mix from barrier 7 for Stephen Matthews and Aidan Keeley, coming off a devastating charge from the back to win at Warwick over 1500m with the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start.

Digging deeper into the race data, speed groups suggest Data Leak, Causeways, and Bringme will try to dictate terms up front as leaders, while Mockridge will settle back in the field as the lone backmarker. Golden Loom is also worth a mention from barrier 4 for the stable of Corey and Kylie Geran, coming off a honest runner-up finish at Warwick over 1500m where it was outgunned but tried hard. While racing can always throw up a surprise, this bunch sets up an intriguing puzzle for punters trying to find the winner of the fifth.

Race notes

CL3,CL3 HCP,Class 3
SOFT5
Overcast
6 runners

Shortest win price

Abraham (2)

2.35

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

1Mockridge

Midfield

5Switchblade

Onpace

2Abraham

Leader

3Data Leak
7Causeways
8Bringme

Mockridge · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Abraham · Negative
Tricky Map
Runners with this map, underperform market by 3%
Data Leak · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Switchblade · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1MockridgeJ: Nozi Tomizawa·T: Corey & Kylie Geran659kg11 12 3 6 413: 2-0-2$8.50$3.20

Career

13: 2-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
3: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1105m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0

Last starts

4Sunshine Coast1400m16 Oct 2026 · CL2 · HEAVY104L
6Toowoomba925m21 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(3)12.8L
3Wangaratta1590m14 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY105.8L
12Geelong1400m22 May 2026 · 2UP BM62 HCP · SOFT58.01L
11Sandown1400m26 Dec 2025 · 3UP BM70 HCP · GOOD46.2L
6Cranbourne1300m5 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.4L
1Wagga1600m10 Aug 2025 · CL1-SW · SOFT6-1.4
6Bendigo1600m13 July 2025 · 2yo+ · HEAVY84.2L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Nozi Tomizawa 28% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 29%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 38% Profit on Turnover
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 3%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Trimmed margin late at Sunshine Coast for new trainer. Not fancied.

ILB

Made ground when closing off to finish 4th last time at Sunshine Coast. Might take a while to wind up but should be hitting top gear in the straight. A threat to the other main hopes.

Useful at this level; not beaten too far when fourth of nine over 7f at Sunshine Coast (handicap) on first run for this trainer 15 days ago; major player if finding his best form.

RSIS

Edged past some when finishing 4th last run at Sunshine Coast. Expected to be flashing home. Quietly confident of a big run at decent odds.

2AbrahamJ: Kelsey Lenton·T: Nick Keal558.5kg7 4 1 6 1014: 2-4-1$2.35$1.30

Career

14: 2-4-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Toowoomba
2: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-0
Track Warwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-2-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-4-1
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

10Gold Coast1800m3 Oct 2026 · BM60 · GOOD34.84L
6Doomben1640m16 Sept 2026 · CL2 · GOOD46.43L
1Toowoomba1625m29 Aug 2026 · CL2 · GOOD4-2.4
4Toowoomba1300m22 Aug 2026 · BM62 · GOOD41.4L
7Doomben1200m5 Aug 2026 · CG&E CL1 · GOOD44.1L
1Toowoomba925m28 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)-3.8
10Sunshine Coast1200m19 July 2026 · CL1 · SOFT59.3L
6Toowoomba925m23 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)4.6L

Insights

Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 3%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Toowoomba
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Fresh. Sent out $5 when unable to threaten at Gold Coast. Can bounce back in this.

ILB

Started $5.00 and weakened to finish 10th last start at Gold Coast. Overlooking the last run and gets a reduction in weight. Should muster plenty of early toe. Expect support.

Last of ten over 1m1f at Gold Coast (handicap) four weeks ago; has won at this course; this is his level; the Nick Keal operation is running hot currently; prospects as shown he can get his head in front.

RSIS

Started 4/1 and didn't attack the line when 10th last run at Gold Coast. Happy to forgive that run and dropping weight. Displays good tactical pace. Highly respected.

3Data LeakJ: Montanna Savva·T: K R Kemp258kg1 3 4 6 426: 3-6-4$2.40$1.30

Career

26: 3-6-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Doomben
2: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
3: 0-1-0
Track Toowoomba
18: 3-4-4
Distance 870m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1100m
6: 0-2-0
Distance 1200m
5: 0-1-3
Going Good
18: 1-3-4
Going Heavy
3: 1-1-0
Going Soft
5: 1-2-0

Last starts

4Eagle Farm1820m3 Oct 2026 · CL3 · GOOD42.23L
6Doomben1615m12 Sept 2026 · 0 - 65 · GOOD42.91L
4Toowoomba1640m5 Sept 2026 · BM70 · GOOD44.3L
3Toowoomba1625m8 Aug 2026 · BM70 · GOOD42.7L
1Toowoomba1640m18 July 2026 · BM60 · SOFT5-0.2
5Toowoomba1300m3 July 2026 · BM70 · GOOD42.28L
3Toowoomba1200m20 June 2026 · BM70 · GOOD42L
10Toowoomba1300m6 June 2026 · BM70 · GOOD49.9L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Not disgraced at Eagle Farm. Reserves best for home track. Highly rated in this line-up.

ILB

Jumped at $14.00 and peaked on the run when 4th last run at Eagle Farm and competing in an easier class. Has early speed and positions nicely. Can lift.

Fair effort at Eagle Farm four weeks ago upped to 1m1f; normally pretty consistent; a winner over this C&D.

RSIS

At 13/1 overrun in the run home when 4th last time at Eagle Farm and up against weaker rivals. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned. Good chance of taking this out.

4Golden LoomScratched4––––

Career

22: 2-3-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
3: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
3: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
5: 1-1-2
Distance 1550m
4: 1-1-2
Going Good
14: 1-0-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-3-1

Last starts

2Warwick1500m10 Oct 2026 · CL2 · SOFT53.95L
8Toowoomba1300m26 Sept 2026 · 0 - 65 · GOOD44.68L
4Dalby1400m13 Sept 2026 · BM62 · GOOD34.7L
8Toowoomba1625m30 May 2026 · BM70 · SOFT77.3L
13Scone1300m15 May 2026 · CL2 · GOOD47.9L
4Toowoomba1200m2 May 2026 · BM60 · SOFT51.55L
4Orange1600m22 Mar 2026 · Benchmark 82 · GOOD45.1L
7Newcastle1600m12 Mar 2026 · Benchmark 68 · GOOD43.8L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -60% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 30%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 40% Profit on Turnover
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 3%
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Outgunned but did enough for second at $6 at Warwick. Shapes as a rough place prospect.

ILB

Rattled home nicely into 2nd beaten by just short of 4L last start at Warwick.

Behind Switchblade over 7½f at Warwick (handicap) putting in a solid effort to finish second three weeks ago; needs considering.

RSIS

Claimed a spot in the placings when 2nd beaten by close to 4L last run at Warwick.

5SwitchbladeJ: Aidan Keeley·T: Stephen Matthews756kg3 11 6 3 127: 3-2-5$4.20$1.95

Career

27: 3-2-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-1
Track Ipswich
9: 1-0-1
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1112m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1690m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1710m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
14: 2-0-2
Going Soft
11: 1-1-3

Last starts

1Warwick1500m10 Oct 2026 · CL2 · SOFT5-3.95
3Warwick1350m24 Sept 2026 · CL2 · GOOD31.25L
6Ipswich1350m27 Aug 2026 · C · SOFT52.2L
11Ipswich1350m7 Aug 2026 · 0 - 58 · GOOD46.34L
3Ipswich1710m24 July 2026 · 0 - 58 · SOFT56L
6Toowoomba1640m18 July 2026 · BM60 · SOFT57.1L
6Ipswich1690m3 July 2026 · 0 - 58 · GOOD43.24L
4Dalby1400m18 June 2026 · BM62 · GOOD42.9L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 39% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 375%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 35%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Aidan Keeley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 61%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 3%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start

Comments

AAP

Devastating charge from the back at Warwick. Worth a look.

ILB

Dominant winner by close to 4L last start at Warwick and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Winning potential.

Landed Warwick handicap in good style 21 days ago; has won here previously; despite that Warwick success, hard to recommend.

RSIS

Won by a big margin of close to 4L last run at Warwick and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Well respected contender.

6More CashScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start

Comments

AAP

Romped in at Inverell. Stronger challenge here but stays under notice.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Jumped at $3.30 and had difficulty when 7th last start at Moree but carrying less weight this time.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. At 9/4 not competitive when 7th last time at Moree but gets some weight taken off.

7CausewaysJ: Kenji Yoshida·T: Ravyn Warzecha354kg11 6 8 7 520: 2-0-2$41.00$8.00

Career

20: 2-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating20%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 2-0-0
Track Grafton
3: 0-0-0
Track Goondiwindi
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1415m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
6: 2-0-1

Last starts

5Toowoomba1640m3 Oct 2026 · BM58 · GOOD45.38L
7Warwick1500m10 Sept 2026 · CL3 · GOOD34.6L
8Dalby1400m11 Aug 2026 · 0 - 58 · GOOD44.3L
6Goondiwindi1400m18 July 2026 · BM552.4L
11Ipswich1690m3 July 2026 · 0 - 58 · GOOD46.34L
3Beaudesert1400m26 June 2026 · CG&E 0 - 58 · SOFT72.6L
4Dalby1400m18 June 2026 · 0 - 55 · GOOD40.7L
8Sunshine Coast Poly Track1100m29 May 2026 · 0 - 62 · SYNTHETIC8.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Freshened. Started $41 when safely held in Benchmark 58 company this venue over this trip. Up in class. Has plenty to find on latest offerings. On trust.

ILB

Was $41.00 and ran 5th last run here. Expected to settle towards the tail. Needs to improve.

Largely disappointing since successful in a handicap at Beaudesert in May; was fifth of eight, beaten 5½l, 28 days ago; he can be taken on.

RSIS

At 40/1 ran 5th last run at this track. Likely to get back in the run.

8BringmeJ: Hannah Richardson·T: Anthony Freeman154kg5 10 8 7 1058: 3-5-6$41.00$8.50

Career

58: 3-5-6

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
6: 0-2-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-1
Third-up
5: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
5: 0-0-0
Track Dalby
5: 0-0-0
Track Warwick
7: 1-2-0
Track Gold Coast Poly
5: 0-2-0
Distance 1666m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 2000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2180m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
43: 2-3-5
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-1

Last starts

10Ipswich1350m8 Oct 2026 · 0 - 58 · GOOD45.3L
7Gold Coast1700m19 Sept 2026 · CL6 · GOOD317.41L
8Warwick1500m10 Sept 2026 · CL3 · GOOD34.9L
10Gold Coast Poly1540m15 Aug 2026 · 0 - 58 · SYNTHETIC11.9L
5Ipswich1666m7 Aug 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD42.1L
5Gatton1600m27 June 2026 · CL3 · GOOD46.9L
9Toowoomba1625m20 June 2026 · CL3 · GOOD412.5L
7Toowoomba1890m27 Mar 2026 · BM70 · GOOD47.7L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 35% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Long time since last saluted. Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Ipswich. Faces stronger opposition now. Needs a form spike.

ILB

Was $51.00 and lost ground in the run home when 10th last time at Ipswich but can save some energy from the draw. Yet to fire this preparation. Hard to recommend.

Has won previously at this course; a while since he's been in the winners' enclosure (last win in 2024); held when tenth of 11 at Ipswich over 6½f (handicap) 23 days ago; passed over.

RSIS

Was 50/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 10th last time at Ipswich but will appreciate a good draw. Has struggled so far of late.

Odds correct as at Sat 31 Oct, 8:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 24 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Sat 17 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 6 races
Sat 3 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Sat 26 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 10 races
Sat 12 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 6 races
Sat 5 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races