Shortest win price
Over Excited (12)
3.20
The Catanach's Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes at Caulfield this afternoon is a Group 3 sprint for three-year-olds over 1200 metres on a Good 4 track in fine conditions. The win market has Over Excited shortest, with Threads and Doubt Time next in line, followed by Jarbardar. It's a race that looks wide open, with genuine claims spread across the field and plenty of narrative threads to weave through.
Over Excited brings a high profile into this one, rated 95 by the form assessors and backed by the stable's proven strike rate. The runner showed serious spark two back at Flemington in the Cap D'Antibes before a forgettable outing in heavy ground last start. Threads, second favourite, has strung together consecutive wins and hit the line hard at Caulfield and Randwick Kensington most recently. Blake Shinn's booking on a runner rated 70 who has momentum is a neat angle. Doubt Time, rated 100, hasn't raced often but showed real class as a debut winner at this track earlier in the year and should relish the extra 100 metres after that heavy-ground run at Flemington. Mark Zahra has been riding well above expectation lately, which adds another layer to that case.
The on-pace runners Neveu and Jarbardar shape as serious tactical threats. Jarbardar knows Caulfield well and ran on gamely at this venue for the McEvoy stable last time, though form at this track reads as mixed. Neveu has Jett Stanley aboard, a rider running 75 per cent above market expectation in recent rides, and the form reads solid with win-strike already on the card. Barracks leads the speedGroup and won last start under Craig Williams, who's also riding above his average. The narrative cuts both ways: proven recent form and tactical advantage, tempered by the fact that the offpace runners — headed by those consecutive Threads wins — figure to run right through them late.
Shortest win price
Over Excited (12)
3.20
Most career wins
Threads and Neveu
2 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Stretan Ruler · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Marffiano · Negative
Jockey Booking
Luke Currie current POT is 45% below Career Avg.
Threads · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Neveu · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 39% better than Career Avg.
Career
6: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
2: 1-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sent out $41 when unable to threaten in heavy ground at Flemington for new trainer. Better for the outing. Best viewed as a rough place hope.
ILB
Lost ground in the run home when 11th last start at Flemington. Looking for an improved run and facing a weaker group of contenders. Competitive type.
RP
Finished behind three of these rivals over 5½f at Flemington (Group 2) on first run for current trainer when last of 11 14 days ago; in good form prior to backwards step last time out; an easier task than his previous race; has won in classy company before and is a player.
RSIS
Lost ground in the run home when 11th last run at Flemington on a heavy track. Happy to forgive that run and taking on easier opposition. Will go close.
Career
4: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Currie current POT is 45% below Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 13% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 49% in L100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Second campaign (16-weeks). Stakes-placed in first prep. Won the Vobis Gold Rush Bendigo 2 May. Prefer others.
ILB
First up after 16 weeks and displayed a good turn of foot when winning first up last preparation at Bendigo. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Not likely to be troubling the more fancied runners today.
RP
Fair effort when beaten just under 3l over 7f at Eagle Farm (Listed race) four months ago; deserves respect despite being up in class and shown he can get his head in front.
RSIS
Resuming and bold effort when winning resuming last preparation at Bendigo. Might have to make up considerable ground. Matched against a stronger field.
Career
7: 2-0-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-1
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-1
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 2-0-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
AAP
Stuck tough, holding off challengers 3yo Hcp this course at $12. Could get into the placings.
ILB
Finished well when winning last start around here but challenged by more formidable competitors. Keeping a perfect win record the last 2 starts. Better to look elsewhere.
RP
Bids to pull off a hat-trick and has displayed improved form on last two starts; landed a narrow success in a handicap when beating Jarbardar (second) and Tales Of Time (sixth) last month; others appeal more as this is a tougher test.
RSIS
Was eating up the ground late when winning last time at this venue but stepping up to a higher level. Can't knock the form winning 2 on the trot.
Career
5: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
3: 2-1-0
Track Murray Bridge
1: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 2-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 39% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jett Stanley 75% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 42%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 25% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jett Stanley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 75%
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Back for second campaign (13-weeks). Won the SA Sires' Produce in his maiden campaign. Won 2 of 5 starts in first campaign. Hard to warm to here.
ILB
Fresh today. Dashed home to win last start at Morphettville but taking on stronger opponents. Has the necessary speed to overcome the wide draw. Getting better in recent performances. This field likely to be too good.
RP
Got home in front by a nose at Morphettville over 7f (Group 3) three months ago; is not ruled out.
RSIS
Racing fresh today after a break. Rocketed home when winning last start at Morphettville but matched against tougher rivals. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide stall.
Career
4: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 2-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1012m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 2-1-0
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
AAP
Shouldered 61kg to victory at Sandown-Hillside. Got back and wasn't totally disgraced this course when second-up. Fancy the extra trip will suit. Worth a look.
ILB
At $2.20 finished 6th last time at this track but will appreciate a good draw. Promising career start. Facing a stronger group of contenders.
RP
Finished sixth, beaten 3½l by Threads here over 5½f (handicap) when failing to live up to market expectations last month; has won two of his four career runs; this represents a step up in class so is passed over.
RSIS
Started 6/5 and finished 6th last time here but drawn by the rails. Solid career start. Rising in class.
Career
2: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 1-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Mark Zahra 26% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -27% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Debut winner at Caulfield 25 Jul. Not disgraced in heavy ground at Flemington at second outing. at $18. Should relish the rise in distance. Among the dangers.
ILB
Odds of $18.00 and was making up some late ground when 5th last time at Flemington and competing in an easier class. Will be trying to topple them late. Will attract plenty of interest.
RP
Not disgraced when fifth of 11 with three of these in behind at Flemington two weeks ago in a Group 2; a course winner; this might be easier; much respected if replicating the best of his form.
RSIS
Started 17/1 and ran on into 5th last time at Flemington and dropping in grade. Possesses good closing pace. Gets a solid chance here.
Career
3: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Track Wagga
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-2-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-2-0
Going Good
2: 1-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Honest
Positive
Finishing in the money lately
AAP
Trailed pace and ran on gamely this venue for new trainer. Building fitness. Can lead or take a sit. Can play a role with even breaks.
ILB
Ran on strongly when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last start at the track but racing in stronger company. Has the speed to overcome the wide alley. Very unlikely.
RP
Ran well when beaten three-quarters of a length behind Threads last month on his first start for this trainer in a handicap; facing a tougher assignment than last time, there are better alternatives here.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the placings when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last start here but challenged by more formidable competitors. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall.
Career
3: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Fresh. Terrific in the Vain Stakes Caulfield two back. Not disgraced at Flemington last start. Not out of this.
ILB
Started $15.00 and inched into 5th last run at Flemington and honest performer putting a tidy record together. Should muster plenty of early speed. Very tidy performer.
RP
Finished fifth last month albeit only beaten 3l over 5½f (Group 3) at Flemington.
RSIS
Was 14/1 and inched into 5th last start at Flemington and good career start. Should muster plenty of early pace. In top form lately. Expecting a strong showing.
Career
4: 1-2-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
1: 1-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-1-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 15% better than Career Avg.
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Just held on after leading at Rosehill off extended spell. Craig Williams rides. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
Was much too speedy in front to win by a margin of 3/4L last start at Rosehill but up against a more competitive field. Should jump out and bowl along. Looking at others.
RP
Opened account at the fourth time of asking when winning by three-quarters of a length at Rosehill two weeks ago in a handicap; this demands more than last time so easy enough to take on.
RSIS
Controlled the pace to win by 3/4L last time at Rosehill but up against stronger competition. Should come to hand quickly.
Career
6: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
3: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
5: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 4%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Unable to threaten in the G3 Heritage at Rosehill although was working home okay. Among the dangers here.
ILB
Started $12.00 and edged past some when finishing 4th last time at Rosehill and has a good draw. Does take a while to get into stride. Hard to see it being competitive today.
RP
Not really built on success in a handicap in July at Muswellbrook; not disgraced when fourth over 5½f at Rosehill (Group 3) last month; meeting some horses in good form and others are preferred.
RSIS
Started 11/1 and showed some merit late when 4th last run at Rosehill and drawn nicely. Might be ridden for luck.
Career
2: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Led, soon under pressure and dropped off at Flemington at second start. Others rate stronger.
ILB
At $21.00 was well beaten when 9th last time at Flemington but challenged by weaker competitors. Shows good early pace. Not in this.
RP
Held when ninth of 11 over 5½f at Flemington (Group 2) 14 days ago; this is a step down in class but unlikely to do better than a supporting role.
RSIS
Started 20/1 and gave away some ground when 9th last time at Flemington on a heavy surface but goes down in grade. Should race on the pace.
Career
3: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1147m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Key Rider
Positive
Damian Lane 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 23% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Terrific in the Cap D'Antibes Stakes Flemington two back behind Satono Glow. Performance was fair in heavy ground at Flemington last start. Looks well suited to bring up win number two.
ILB
Odds of $4.60 and ran 7th last start at Flemington. Capable of a strong comeback and back in an easier grade. Very competitive this campaign. Commands respect.
RP
Not beaten that far in seventh (just under 4l) in a Group 2 at Flemington 14 days ago; Anthony & Sam Freedman's runners are going great guns at the moment; others more persuasive despite this looking a little easier than last time.
RSIS
Odds of 7/2 and ran 7th last time at Flemington. Has the potential to improve sharply and competing at a lower grade. Promising career start. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.